Showing posts with label Mathshammer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mathshammer. Show all posts

Friday, 22 May 2015

7th edition Eldar Mathshammer - Which multi shot heavy weapon to use and when?

So the new codex comes out and there have been very few changes to the heavy weapons in the Eldar codex.  Or have there?

In the last edition, the Scatter Laser was king.  With laser lock the others rarely got a look in. However times change, laser lock has been resigned to the bin of history and so everyone gets to have another chance.  In this article I will compare the Scatter Laser (SL) with both the Shuriken Cannon (ShC) and the Starcannon (StC).

The reason for this article is that I read somewhere on a popular blog that there is no point in using starcannons because they are flat our inferior to scatter lasers still.  I am not so sure that is the case, so lets run the numbers shall we?  I will take several basic statlines and compare the damage each weapon does against them.  We will use GEQ, MEQ and finally TEQs.

GEQ - Toughness 3 5+ saves
SL 4 shots, hit on 3s, wound on 2s, saves on 5s.   1.49 kills
ShC 3 shots, hit on 3s, wound on 2s, no saves (bladestorm irrelevant here) 1.66 kills
StC 2 shots, hit on 2s, wound on 2s, no saves. 1.11 kills.

In a surprise to me at least, the Shuiken Cannon comes out on top here.  Saving one in three wounds really hurts the Scatter lasers damage output.  It will likely only get worse from here on out for the previous king.

MEQ - T4 3+ saves
SL 4 shots, hit on 3s, wound on 2s, saves on 3s. 0.73 kills
ShC 3 shots, hit on 3s, wound on 2s, saves on 3s (bladestorm kicks in)  0.64 kills
StC 2 shots, hit on 2s, wound on 2s, no saves.  1.11 kills

So unless my maths is wrong, the Starcannon is the best performer here.  Against the most common, popular models in the game.  Now obviously cover saves do matter, but that will only reduce the Starcannon to 0.74, still leaving it the strongest performer here.

TEQ - T4 2+/5++
SL 4 shots, hit on 3s, wound on 2s, saves on 2s.  0.37 kills
ShC 3 shots, hit on 3s, wound on 2s, saves on 2s (bladestorm kicks in)  0.46 kills
StC 2 shots, hit on 2s, wound on 2s, saves on 5++.  0.74 kills

As the armour improves, the Scatter laser really loses out. The only time the scatter laser may be the optimal weapon is against a target with an armour save of 6+ or worse.  Outside of orks, I don't think there are a great many of those around.

Friday, 24 October 2014

Just how accurate are blast weapons? The maths revealed

Its been a fair while between posts, I don't update as often as I used to do.  I have however been thinking about just how accurate a blast weapon is, opposed to a regular shot from a unit.  Consider some basic units;

Ork: BS2
Guardsman/fire warrior/termagant: BS3
Space Marine: BS4

These are some of the common basic unit types in the game.  They cover the three most common ballistic skill levels.  An ork has 1/3 chance of a hit, a guardsman a 1/2 chance of a hit and a marine a fairly high 2/3 chance of a hit.

So how does this compare to blast weapons?  Lets consider the two basic sizes, small blast at 3 inches and the larger one at 5 inches.

All blast weapons have a 1/3 chance of a hit, from the off.  This matches what Orks already get, but is worse than the other races standard BS.  So straight away, you might be thinking, why would you use such an innacurate weapon?

Well the good folks at GW allow you to take your BS into account when seeing if you hit.  As you know, you have a mighty 3/36 or 1/12 chance of rolling a double one, or a one and a two.  This is a bonus chance of hitting, should your shot scatter.

So you will find an Ork has roughly a 0.36 chance of a hit with a blast weapon.  Except that in reality he doesn't.  Because, as you know the template is bigger than 1 inch wide, so if it scatters only 1 inch, you will still hit at least the target model.  With the larger blast, you will still hit them if it scatters 2 inches.  So what does that do to the maths?  Well it improves the chance of the ork hitting to a mighty 0.39 for the smaller blast and a fairly impressive 0.50 with the larger blast.  You also have a chance of hitting other models in the squad!

So for orks, its an entirely positive experience using blast weapons.  Unfortunately, if you have more than BS2, they get less of a boost and with bs4 small blasts are less accurate than firing a normal gun.

Chance of hitting the exact model with bs 3 is 0.42 and with scattering the small blast hits 0.50 and the larger one 0.61.
Chance of hitting the exact model with bs4 is 0.50 and with scattering the small blast hits 0.61 and the larger one 0.75.


Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Howling Banshees, can they be competitive in an Eldar list?

Howling Banshees.  Can they be a competitive choice in an Eldar list?

They are the unit which has virtually no love in the new book.  This article is going to compare them to units they compete against, within their own codex.  Specifically Striking Scorpions and Wraithblades.  All third units occupy the Elites slot, with Wraithblades having the ability to move into troops with a Spirit Seer.  Origonally I had included harlequins in this but they pretty much came last on everything.

For the sake of simplicity, we will take a ten man unit of each aspect and 5 wraithblades since they are quite similar on points.

10 Howling banshees
5 Wraithblades
10 Striking scorpions


These will be tested against MEQs, tau firewarriors and GEQs.  We are only including the melee ability of these units, not their shooting ability.  The reason being that all the units except Wraithblades have exactly the same BS and pistol weapon making this point redundant.

Fighting vs 10 GEQs
So, one of the more common match ups is against space marines.

Eldar Charge
Guardsmen stand and shoot.  They kill on average;

0.835 Banshees
0.184 Wraithblades
0.551 Scorpions

So Banshees are bottom for taking damage.  Lets assume that they all make it into combat though.
All of the eldar units strike before the guardsmen.  Banshee mask therefore contributes nothing to this combat.

Banshees kill 10.05 guardsmen leaving none to strike back.
Wraithblades kill 8.34 guardsmen leaving two to strike back.
Scorpions kill 3.35 with mandiblasters, and 9.023 with normal attacks, leaving none to strike back.

They all mop up guardsmen with ease, except the wraithblades.  Taking points into consideration, Banshees are cheaper than the other two, but kill 10 models all the same.  Banshees may win this round.


Fighting vs Firewarriors
This may be seen as quite an unusual choice of unit, but tau are increasingly common in games and fire warriors are perhaps the most points efficient troops choice in the entire game.  While pre 6th edition many players had never seen a tau army, they are everywhere like a bad smell these days.

Eldar charge
Tau Firewarriors stand and shoot.  They kill on average;

2.78 Banshees!
0.363 Wraithblades
0.92 Scorpions

That is really, really bad for Banshees.  Nearly 3 die on average charging just ten fire warriors.  Assuming some kind of miracle, and everyong makes it into combat, this is what happens.

Banshees kill 10.5 Firewarriors, leaving none to strike back.
Wraithblades kill 8.34 Firewarriors, leaving two to strike back.
Scorpions kill 2.5 with mandiblasters, and 6.734 leaving one to strike back.

Banshees out perform scorpions here.  Power swords make short work of the reasonably good tau armour, where scorpions struggle somewhat.  Wraithblades are consistent but don't kill a lot.  Still I expect them to wade through the remaining tau in the second turn with no losses.

Finally we will look at Fighting vs Marines
Still the most common unit type on the table, we need to consider how effective each type of eldar is against the humble tactical space marine.

Eldar charge
Marines stand and shoot.  They kill on average;

1.19 Banshees
0.184 Wraithblades
0.746 Scorpions

Again, the Banshees do badly here taking more damage.  Their lower armour is really hurting them.  Assuming they all make it over to combat, again, highly unlikely and we will run the numbers.

Banshees kill 4.95 marines, before the marines swing.  Not good for a unit designed to kill marines.
Wraithblades kill 6.225 marines before they swing.  They are super consistent vs any unit.
Scorpions kill 2.21 with mandiblasters and 2.475 with attacks.

None of them kill ten marines. 

Conclusion.
Which is best?  Well in all honesty there is not much to pick between Scorpions and Wraithblades.  Banshees die far too easily to be considered.  If I had taken their deaths into account on the maths, they would have come consistently bottom, and that is without factoring in any turns of shooting they may suffer on the way in.

Sunday, 14 April 2013

Tau 6th Edition Troops Review, aka Firewarriors, Firewarriors, Firewarriors

This is a really really straight forwards review.  Lets start with this.  Tau Firewarriors are probably the best troops choice in the entire game.  You can probably ignore Kroot entirely, since they are no longer a combat unit.

Let me explain my thoughts.  Tau firewarriors went down in points to less than ten points each, the same points as Daemonettes, Plaguebearers and Pink Horrors.

For the low, low cost of 99 points, you can get 11 Fire warriors.  If they shoot at 7 Dark Angel tactical marines, which come to 98 points, in a book also written by the same author, then you can see what I mean.

11 Firewarriors at long range kill 2.39 Tacticals.  In rapid fire range they kill 4.79.  This is the equivelent of 33.46 points killed at long range and 67.06 points killed at short range.

The 7 Dark Angels only kill 1.57 Fire Warriors at long range, and 3.14 at long range.  In terms of points killed, at long range Dark Angels kill 14.13 points and at short range 28.26 points.

So yeah.  They are 2.37 times more points efficient at killing the cheapest marines, than the marines are at killing them back.

Friday, 15 March 2013

Chaos Daemon 6th edition troops review

Now I know I said I wouldn't review the whole codex, and I don't for a minute think I will get time to look at everything.   However what I will do is have a brief look at certain units and even add some maths to make everything more fun!

Bloodletters

First up, Khornes troop choice.  Bloodletters took a battering, losing a point in toughness and attacks.  Their leadership, much like every other Daemon unit is the same as basic guardsmen and champions don't add a bonus to it.  So far, so bad.  Like other daemons they all became much cheaper.

Name one other book where you get a ws5, furious charging, s4 power sword armed troops choice for a very reasonable amount of points?
You can't because they don't exist.  This is essentially all you are buying.

Bloodletters have the poorest defensive stats, on par with Daemonettes, with guardsman toughness and the daemon rule providing all the defense of a wet paper towel.  They are however dirt cheap.  A full unit, with the Banner of blood to help charges, is only 235 for 20 models and all the upgrades.  It is probably worth finding a few points for an etherblade for the unit champion, so he can at least hit things at ap2.

10 basic bloodletters vs 10 marines
Charging bloodletters kill 8.978 marines!  Not bad for a unit worth just over half the points...
10 basic bloodletters vs 10 terminators
Charging bloodletters kill 1.526 terminators.  Not great.
10 basic bloodletters vs 10 guardsmen
Charging bloodletters kill 11.112 guardsmen.

The numbers prove the theory.  Bloodletters are very good vs power armour.  Elsewhere they are not very cost effective.  Just imagine Bloodletters are dirt cheap howling banshees.  They are virtually identical in application.


Daemonettes

The only other combat infantry in the troops section are Slaaneshs Daemonettes.  These suffered far less of a battering, losing only an attack and an initiative.  They are still initaitve 5 and have all the bonuses of being a daemon of slaanesh.  Coming in at a point under that of bloodletters, they are faster than them, equally fragile, with less strength.

However they do have rending, so this helps somewhat and they can therefore tackle terminators which Bloodletters will struggle with.  As before, you probably want an Etherblade on the champion, ideally paying for a greater one, to improve the models strength.  The banner is quite nice, but daemonettes already have better WS and initaitve than anyone they are likely to fight, so I can't see it being used over much.  A full command unit of 20 with the banner comes in at a very reasonable 215 points.

Due to rending, this table is somewhat more confusing!

10 basic daemonettes vs 10 marines
Charging daemonettes rend 3.32 marines and kill 1.105 for a total of 3.425 dead marines
10 basic daemonettes vs 10 terminators
Charging daemonettes rend 2.22 terminators and kill  0.553 for a total of 2.773 dead terminators
10 basic daemonettes vs 10 guardsmen
Charging daemonettes rend 3.35 guardsmen and kill 5.561 guardsmen for a total of 8.911 dead guardsmen.

These numbers surprise me quite a lot when compared to Bloodletters, which are miles better at killing marines, as expected, but I thought daemonettes would be better at killing guardsmen.  It seems the low strength of daemonettes really hurts them in this respect.  They are however nearly twice as good at killing terminators, and with rending they can damage most vehicles.

Pink Horrors

I have to confess, I have read quite a lot of varied reviews on this unit.  Some reviewers think this unit is universally terrible, some think it is still quite good.  I am in the later camp.  For the same price as daemonettes you get more or less a humans profile, with +3 leadership for casting psychic powers.  Sure they lost their shooting attacks and their 4+ invulnerable save, but you know what, none of that matters.

Who wouldn't want to get a 10 wound psyker, who scores for less than 100 points?  This is what Pink Horrors bring.  Forget that they are no longer a shooting unit, that is the past.  This is the now.  I recommend always taking the Primaris power, and try to get into the 16-20 model range.  This will give you an impressive 4d6 s5 shots spell.  Attach a Herald with the right locus, and this becomes 4d6 s6 shots, combined with Divination spells and indeed his own Primaris power, the unit can throw out a tremendous amount of shooting.  I think the Herald is near mandatory for this unit, which bumps the price up, but it is a very capable unit.  You really do want the banner upgrade, as it allows a decent amount of hits on overwatch, something you otherwise can't do.

As before, I will run the numbers for 10 basic horrors, but this time, casting spells.  In all cases I will assume they have 7 shots, as this is the statistical average of 2d6.  However, as the power improves by 50% for just adding 10% to the cost of the unit, I really can't see many players using just 10 models.  The cost of this unit is identical to that of the Daemonettes.

10 basic pink horrors vs 10 marines
Spell casting pink horrors kill 1.87 marines.
10 basic pink horrors vs 10 terminators
Spell casting pink horrors kill 0.940 terminators.
10 basic pink horrors vs 10 guardsmen
Spell casting pink horrors kill 2.905 guardsmen.

Please note a successful deny the witch will negate the horrors ability completely.  Certain armies will have better psychic defenses than others, eg Tyranids, Space wolves and Eldar, so be warned.  The numbers are not massively impressive here, however they can guard an objective and still shoot.  Something the next unit in the list can't do.
Oh and warpflame.  This is pretty bad as special rules go.  I think it will get an errata at some point to clarify it.

Plaguebearers.

The only non t3 unit in troops, they also have shrouding.  No more toughness 5 and feel no pain, although an attached herald can bring feel no pain back if you want.  Personally I think this unit functions best running bare bones and guarding objectives while in cover.

You are not going to kill hordes of things with plaguebearers.  Please understand this.  However they do have the ability to always glance a vehicle on a 6, so they can make reasonable anti dreadnought units if the need arises.

Stick them in a ruin for a 2+ cover save on an objective.  This is all this unit should be used for, however here are the combat numbers.

10 basic plaguebearers vs 10 marines
Charging plaguebearers kill 2.25 marines
10 basic plaguebearers vs 10 terminators
Charging plaguebearers kill 1.125 terminators.
10 basic plaguebearers vs 10 guardsmen
Charging plaguebearers kill 5.561 guardsmen.

The numbers really are not that good.  But remember, you bought these to survive being shot at, so lets look at some numbers for this.

10 marine boltgun shots vs lesser daemons in the open.
Daemonettes/Bloodletters lose 3.007 wounds
Pink Horrors lose 2.758 wounds
Plaguebearers lose 2.245 wounds

10 marine boltgun shots vs lesser daemons in a ruin/aegis line
Daemonettes/Bloodletters/Pink Horrors lose 2.245 wounds
Plaguebearers lose 0.536 wounds

So the lesson learned here is that you want your Plaguebearers in ruins!  That is pretty much all there is to them.

Nurglings

Last, but hopefully not least are Nurglings.  With a pile of attacks and wounds, they cost 50% more per base than Bloodletters, but a unit of 3, the minimum size is less than 50 points.  Nothing wrong with that.  I have scoured the rulebook, and I can't find anything in the rules that prevents swarms from scoring in 6th edition. With a small unit footprint and 4 wounds per base, they could provide an alternative roadblock and cheap scoring unit to plaguebearers.  Interestingly they also have the ability to infiltrate, so deploy them in cover for a more than respectable 2 or 3+ cover save!

Running the numbers is a bit more complicated.  For the purpose of this, I will assume you bought 6 bases as this makes the unit the same price as 10 daemonettes/horrors/plaguebearers.

6 basic nurglings vs 10 marines
Charging nurglings kill 1.64 marines
10 basic nurglings vs 10 terminators
Charging nurglings kill 0.817 terminators.
10 basic nurglings vs 10 guardsmen
Charging nurglings kill 6.25 guardsmen.

Again, you are buying them for survivability.  In the open they take the same number of wounds as daemonettes and bloodletters, so 3.007 wounds lost vs 10 bolters.  However in cover they get nearly all the advantages of being a plaguebearer, except the toughness.  So in cover they only lose 0.7631 wounds.

Conclusion

Pretty much all these lesser daemons are useful.  You just need to pick the right tool for the job.  Hopefully these numbers will be of some use to gamers.













Saturday, 17 November 2012

Tankbusting 101 - Weapon comparison - BS4

For the last couple of weeks I have been quite busy not getting around to writing anything more on the chaos book.  It seems anything I can do to avoid writing I seem to do instead. 

What I thought I would do instead is write an updated 6th edition anti tank capability comparison between various weapons in both Space Marine and Imperial Guard lists including as many of the different types of guns as I could think of, seeing how bs 3 and 4 affect the various weapons and equally importantly looking at how the changes to how AP affects armour harms your chances of a kill. 

Firstly lets look at common anti tank weapons available to marines using BS4 adjusted for 6th edition AP values, bearing in mind anything with ap 3+ is actually 50% worse at tank killing now;


ML                                Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
VS AV 10                              11.11%                    44.44%                7.41%
VS AV 11                              11.11%                    33.33%                5.56%
VS AV 12                              11.11%                    22.22%                3.70%
VS AV 13                              11.11%                    11.11%                 1.85%
VS AV 14                              11.11%                           0%                       0%

Lascannon                     Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
VS AV 10                              11.11%                    55.55%                 18.52%
VS AV 11                              11.11%                    44.89%                 14.81%
VS AV 12                              11.11%                    33.50%                 11.05%
VS AV 13                              11.11%                    22.11%                  7.30%
VS AV 14                              11.11%                    10.72%                  3.54%

TL Lascannon                 Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
VS AV 10                              13.88%                    69.44%                 23.15%
VS AV 11                              13.88%                    55.55%                 18.52%
VS AV 12                              13.88%                    41.67%                 13.88%
VS AV 13                              13.88%                    27.76%                  9.25%
VS AV 14                              13.88%                    13.88%                  4.44%

Autocannon                  Chance of Glance     Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
VS AV 10                              11.11%                    33.33%                   5.56%
VS AV 11                             11.11%                    22.22%                    3.70%
VS AV 12                             11.11%                    11.11%                    1.85%
VS AV 13                             11.11%                           0%                       0%
VS AV 14                                   0%                           0%                        0%

TL Autocannon*             Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
VS AV 10                              13.88%                    41.67%                   6.67%
VS AV 11                              13.88%                    27.76%                   4.63%
VS AV 12                              13.88%                    13.88%                   2.22%
VS AV 13                              13.88%                           0%                      0%
VS AV 14                                      0%                          0%                      0%

 Assault Cannon**           Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
 VS AV 10                              11.11%                    22.22%                   3.70%
 VS AV 11                              11.11%                    11.11%                    1.85%
 VS AV 12                                    0%                    11.11%                    3.70%
 VS AV 13                                3.70%                      7.41%                   2.46%
 VS AV 14                                3.70%                      3.70%                   1.23%

 TL Assault Cannon**      Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
 VS AV 10                              13.88%                     27.39%                  4.57%
 VS AV 11                               13.88%                    13.28%                   2.21%
 VS AV 12                                      0%                    13.28%                  6.64%
 VS AV 13                                4.43%                      8.86%                   2.93%
 VS AV 14                                4.43%                      4.43%                   1.48%

Melta under half range   Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
 VS AV 10                               1.83%                     64.84%                  33.03%
 VS AV 11                               3.66%                     61.17%                  31.20%
 VS AV 12                               5.49%                     55.68%                  28.76%
 VS AV 13                               7.32%                     48.36%                  25.40%
 VS AV 14                               9.15%                     39.21%                  21.14%

Melta over half range      Chance of Glance        Chance of Pen          Chance of kill
 VS AV 10                               11.11%                    44.44%                  24.07%
 VS AV 11                               11.11%                    33.33%                  18.55%
 VS AV 12                               11.11%                   22.22%                   12.96%
 VS AV 13                               11.11%                    11.11%                   7.41%
 VS AV 14                               11.11%                          0%                   1.85%

* has two shots, this is a per shot comparison, so you get two chances of this
** has four shots, this is a per shot comparison, so you get four chances of this